Getting into this box is what's best for both of us. During your time in the box, you will learn so much, and yet experience so little. It's a wild ride, my friend, one well worth the time spent...and let's face it, you don't have much to do these days anyway.

Saturday 6 April 2013

Fucking off from Singapore. (Part 1)


"Have a plan", as Sniper from TF2 says. By this time, it shouldn't come as a surprise that both an economic collapse, as well as ITZ, are coming in the very near future. Naturally, this means that one ought to have a solid plan like an ant if one intends to make it through. While there are a number of suggestions to deal with SHTF that can be applied in all situations, and the basics still remain the same, the way to go about them is probably going to be different for various localities and situations. After all, dealing with SHTF in the countryside is going to be different from dealing with it in the city, as is dealing with it in a snow-bound location as opposed to dealing with it in the tropics.

With that thought in mind, let's have a practical look at things. Singapore's land area is about 650 square kilometres; that's less than a good number of cities in the western world. Within this land area is crammed at present 5.3 million people, most of them stacked upon one another like rats in lab cages. Simply google images "HDB flat Singapore" and you'll see what I mean. In short: population density is through the roof.



Now let's say a massive financial collapse happens; while Singapore did fairly well during the asian currency crisis some time back, with our dollar losing not too much of its value, the fact remains that we were still dealt a blow, albeit a cushioned one. And as I've mentioned before, if the bottom drops out of the US dollar barrel sending trade grinding to a halt, then we're fucked. So say, worst-case scenario, we have huge numbers of people suddenly losing their jobs in the face of an economic collapse, with a huge swathe of white-collar jobs suddenly made worthless.

Unlike countries further away from the equator, my main concern isn't going to be with nature, it's going to be with other people, especially in this sardine-tin of a nation.

Food

Now, Singapore has almost no way of producing its own food. Save for a few "agri-business parks" consisting of factory farms for eggs and hydroponics crap, as well as a few offshore fish farms, Singapore is woefully dependent on food imports to sustain its population, with 90% of all needs met by trade. If the US dollar goes, trade goes, and coupled with a massive decrease in food production thanks to ITZ, we can see a sharp, if not complete drop of imports from further locales like the US or Australia.

Now, Singapore does have stockpiles of some basic items, such as rice, sugar and other necessities, supposedly enough to last three months given our current population. However, I don't expect them to be distributed evenly to the masses, if at all, and in a worst-case scenario of complete anarchy and unrest these stockpiles may very well end up rotting in the warehouses while people starve in the streets. Even if these stockpiles are well-distributed in a timely and orderly fashion, it still won't prevent panic buying by the grasshopper masses, if their money is still accepted in the first place.

Long-term, though, even these stockpiles aren't going to last, and I somehow doubt even Malaysia and Thailand are going to be selling us food when they have their own problems to deal with, let alone other countries like Australia and the US. Malaysia, especially - they've been waiting for decades to rub our faces into the dirt after we left the federation, so I wouldn't expect much from them. The Singaporean food situation is simply not going to be sustainable; there isn't anything in the way of land here for agriculture, and there are way too many mouths to feed. Either they leave, or perish when things go to dog-eat-dog.

My goal is to be able to pack away at least a hundred kilos of rice; I already have twenty stored up amidst my canned and dried food stockpile. Enough to last three people three months or so is all I need. I'm also looking into getting seeds for local vegetables; however, that is going to have to wait a little until I finish up squirreling away my food. It's not as if I'll be growing them in earnest here, but rather for when I eventually do bug out north.

As Tex Arcane points out: boil up a bit of rice in a bit of water, sprinkle on a little brown sugar, and while it may not be the most nutritious thing, you've saved yourself from starving to death.

Additional items I've been hoarding include tuna and sardines, beans, canned pineapples, and dried sour prunes. The last are especially useful, so long as you don't buy the candy-ised version: they're long-lasting, lightweight, cheap, and a reasonable source of vitamins in the absence of fresh fruit.

Water

Water I'm a little more unsure of. As Bill points out: while you can pack away bottled water, there's a reasonable limit as to how much can be packed away, especially if you don't have a small basement to hold it all in. Knowing how to dig a well is going to be useful when I eventually do bug out, but right here in Singapore I'm more likely to hit a underground cable, water line, or some other piece of hilarity that criss-crosses the ground where we can't see it. Such is the way of Singapore - the inner workings are hidden away and out of sight. I don't think we have much of a water table, either.

Not recommending that one drink water sourced from the reservoirs or the local rivers, either. Sure, there's plenty of water in our reservoirs, but most of them can be safely considered as stagnant water and even after filtering and boiling/iodine pills, I wouldn't trust them to be potable as far as my life depended on it. Using the Singapore or Kallang River as a water source is just asking for trouble - even if we discount the usual problems with people doing all sorts of personal business into open bodies of water, our local rivers are quite filthy, even if they've been cleaned up somewhat since the 1960s. Remember that this is the tropics - all sorts of diseases and internal parasites await the unwary drinker. Getting debiliatingly sick is one of the last things you want to have happen during SHTF without medical treatment on hand.


Here, I think my best chances are at rainfall catchment. Rain can be reasonably expected every few days on this tropical island, if not every day; besides the winter monsoon is still fucky and puttering along when it should have ended about a month ago. During the inter-monsoon periods, one can still reasonably expect convectional rainfall thanks to convectional rain. I already know of various locations where gutterpipes empty out into storm drains and where a bucket could be conveniently placed for collection, but if not I feel confident in being able to rig up a system to funnel rainwater into some kind of storage (no cisterns here, I'm afraid). Since rainwater is fairly clean compared to open bodies of water (if you keep the collection equipment cleared out), so it'll take a lot less treatment to make useable/potable than other sources. It's not 100% reliable, I admit, but it's far more reliable than the alternatives. A cooling earth will probably mean more rain here, as opposed to less away from the equator.

Here's some data on rainfall for Singapore.

My main concern, again, would be competition by other people for these resources. A gutterpipe or open area during a rainstorm is going to be a huge hotspot for anyone with half a brain; hopefully years of blind obedience and fluoride have worn away even that half in the majority of the population.

Frankly, there simply isn't enough water locally to meet the needs of the population like food; we import about 50% of our water from Malaysia across the Causeway, with a couple of desalination and reverse osmosis plants thrown in the mix adding to our natural catchment. First thing that happens in international turmoil is that I expect the water pipes across the Causeway to dry up instantly, creating a water crisis. Again, the unfortunate result seems to be that the grasshoppers will either slaughter each other or run into the waiting arms of the state; I'd rather hunker down in my box.

Security and shelter

Security, security, security. Singapore is touted as being a pretty safe place to live in, and yes, I can comfortably walk the streets at night, but I'm in two minds about the ability of the police/military to deal with wide-scale unrest. Yes, the local police is more generally competent and less corrupt than your average western cop. No, I doubt the current crop of law-enforcers have much in the way of practical experience at riot control, considering once more that it has not been needed for about four decades now. It will be interesting to see, especially since the military will get involved alongside the police in case of unrest.

The other question that bugs me is whether the military will be staffed or not. What I mean by that is the Singapore Armed Forces as well as a portion of the police and civil defense force, is basically reliant on a conscription model of citizen reservists with a small core of regulars. This will be more workable in the face of an external threat, since once can reasonably assume that men will feel safe leaving their families at home and there'll be better communication and enforcement to shepherd all the reservists into action. With domestic unrest, I'm not so sure men will be so eager to heed any call the government puts out and are more willing to go AWOL than they otherwise would. The first one who decides his family's safety is more important that the government is going to start a domino trend; it might be interesting to watch.

Once things get to the point where the thin veneer of civilisation breaks down, I fully expect people to go door-to-door looting, and one can reasonably expect them to be armed with the tools to do so. Thankfully, due to our rat-cage high-rise apartments, most only need to worry about one or two points of entry or exit to one's home, especially if the architecture is designed so that even the dumbest cat burglar isn't going to risk plummeting to their death trying to get at your twentieth-storey apartment through the window. On one hand, that means you only need to watch one direction. On the other, it's well-known that the name for a hole with only one exit is "trap". While it may not be possible to do anything about it if you're going to hole up in your home given the architecture of so many Singaporean flats, the consequences ought to be kept in mind and leverage the chokepoint for all it's worth.

One thing I'm considering is checking out the local civil defense shelters. Built in the 1980s, these have largely been repurposed to various local businesses such as grocery stores, tuition centers, childcares, the works. But at their heart they still are what they are: bunkers with water and air circulation systems which may or may not be still functioning in the wake of a collapse. A ready-made vault, if a little less elegant than Texas Arcane's grand automated creation. The problems facing me walking in and appropriating one of them are twofold: firstly, of course, they're already occupied, and there's no way I'm going to be able to get through those bloody thick, steel-reinforced doors. But I do have my eye on one that's been converted into a 7-11 and hence is likely to be left open for a bit. I'm not sure, really. The best bet still seems to be staying at home and reinforcing what territory I've already claimed, and it'll avoid having to risk moving my current stockpile over to a new location, but on the other hand, why pass something up if it's free for the taking?

Next time, personal defense considerations and actual bugging-out.

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